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Jonathan Carson & David Wiesenfeld -- 'Buzz to Basket: Using Word of Mouth Data to Forecast the Impact of Marketplace Trends'
Meteorologists aren't always right, but they've got the predictive systems in place that help them make extremely educated "guesses." David Wiesenfeld explained Nielsen BuzzMetrics' similarly styled trend prediction solution. By tracking the "buzz" among online influencers and integrating that data with sales data, David explained, Nielsen BuzzMetrics is able to use online influencer buzz to predict future purchasing trends.
This kind of predictive model, David said, is the "Holy Grail" of marketing research and marketplace prediction.
Other marketplace prediction models are able to indicate "what kind of product," but he contended that they are still unable to say:
* How Big
or
* How Long
We turn to meteorologists if we're deciding whether or not to wear a jacket, bring an umbrella, or plan a picnic, but we don't bet our life savings on whether or not it's going to hail. The Nielsen BuzzMetrics predictive model works in much the same way. Based on influencer discussion patterns, it is able to predict what is likely to happen, but doesn't claim to be a crystal ball into the future of consumer marketplace behavior. Its goal is to sort out short term indications with direct market applications.
For instance, according to David, a prediction that "the United States is becoming very ethnically diverse" is not a statement that would come from the predictive model. It is too broad and has no direct market application. A better example would be "lime is becoming an increasingly popular flavor."